Climate change is already impacting New Jersey’s ecosystems, natural resources, community health, and economy. Locally focused research is essential for understanding these statewide impacts and planning for resilience. This page showcases ongoing and completed climate-related research projects led by the Division of Science and Research, often in collaboration with external partners. This work contributes to the knowledge base that informs the Department’s efforts to build a more climate-ready state. For more on climate preparedness, visit New Jersey’s Climate Resilience page.

Completed Research

Impacts and Effects of Climate Change

2020 New Jersey Scientific Report on Climate Change

DEP’s first scientific report on climate change summarized the current state of knowledge regarding the effects of climate change on New Jersey’s environment to inform state and local decision-makers as they seek to understand and respond to the impacts of climate change. This report identified and presented the best available science and existing data regarding the current and anticipated environmental effects of climate change globally, nationally, and regionally.

June 2020 | Report Link | NJ DEP Science Advisory Board Peer Review

2022 Climate Change Impacts on Human Health and Communities: Addendum to the Scientific Report on Climate Change

New Jersey produced a comprehensive report  on the impacts of climate change on human health and communities by adding a human health addendum to its 2020 New Jersey Scientific Report on Climate Change. Understanding how these new environmental challenges will directly and indirectly affect New Jersey residents is essential to establishing strategies that can effectively and equitably protect and improve health outcomes throughout our State.

September 2022 | Report Link | NJ DEP Science Advisory Board Peer Review

Potential Impact of Climate Change on Groundwater Quality

This report synthesizes available scientific literature on the potential responses of different hydrogeological and biogeochemical processes to climate change and discusses how these processes could impact groundwater quality in New Jersey.

October 2023 | Report Link | Fact Sheet

Future Projections of Phytoplankton Dynamics and Marine Harmful Algal Bloom Events Due to Climate Change: New Jersey’s Changing Coastal Shelf Ecosystem

New Jersey’s coast, encompassed within the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB), is characterized by physical and seasonal dynamics that drive phytoplankton growth, abundance, and composition. Phytoplankton are generally highest in abundance during the fall bloom, when the temperature-induced stratification breaks down stimulating mixing and increasing nutrient concentrations in surface waters. The MAB is one of the fastest warming regions of the ocean, which has coincided with small decreases in primary productivity and shifts in the timing of seasonal transitions. The relative contribution of larger groups (e.g., diatoms) to the phytoplankton community has decreased, whereas the relative contribution of smaller groups (e.g., dinoflagellates, green algae) has increased. These trends, including the variation in growth patterns, are likely to continue as climate change progresses. These variations may result in the increase in the harmful overgrowth of the phytoplankton population, known as a harmful algal bloom (HABs). Harmful algal blooms have occurred in NJ marine waters for decades with the potential to negatively impact New Jersey residents and ecosystems. While there is a lack of short- and intermediate-terms studies investigating the future of HABs in the MAB, future conditions associated with climate change will likely increase the potential for marine HAB events.

March 2025 | Report Link

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New Jersey-Specific Rainfall Studies

The New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection released two studies by the Northeast Regional Climate Center (NRCC), a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) partner, which confirmed increases in precipitation across New Jersey over the last 20 years, and projected further increases in precipitation intensity through the end of this century due to climate change. To visualize these projected increases in extreme precipitation intensity, check out the New Jersey Extreme Precipitation Projection Tool. A third study was completed by the New Jersey State Climatologist and Rutgers University, which showed historic precipitation patterns in New Jersey and how the State’s annual precipitation has significantly increased since rainfall records began.

Examining Precipitation Across the Garden State From 1900 to 2020

December 2022 | Report Link | Fact Sheet

Projected Changes in Extreme Rainfall in New Jersey based on an Ensemble of Downscaled Climate Model Projections

October 2021 | Report Link | Fact Sheet | Supplemental Data Tables | NJ DEP Science Advisory Board Peer Review

Changes in Hourly and Daily Extreme Rainfall Amounts in NJ since the Publication of NOAA Atlas 14 Volume

October 2021 | Report Link | Fact Sheet | NJ DEP Science Advisory Board Peer Review

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Sea Level Rise

Last millennium relative sea-level change on the western coast of southern New Jersey

Scientists within DSR are working with researchers at Rutgers University on a project to reconstruct the sea level fluctuations for the last millennium and current trends on the New Jersey Delaware Bayshore in the anomalous subsidence area of Dennis Creek. The research uses palaeoecological investigations to reconstruct past millennium sea levels, as well as accretion and subsidence rates in the Delaware Bay area of Dennis Creek based on sediment cores and wetland surface sediment samples.

October 2024 | Report Link | Fact Sheet

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Mitigation and Adaptation Science

Natural and Working Lands Strategy

The DEP and New Jersey Department of Agriculture to develop a Natural and Working Lands Strategy (NWLS) for the State. By protecting New Jersey’s existing carbon sinks, as well as enacting well-informed, scientifically backed land restoration and management strategies, the State can achieve the reduction of 10.8 million metric tons of CO₂e due to carbon sequestration necessary to meet the 80×50 Goal. The NWLS aims to access the expertise of subject matter experts and the best available science to develop recommendations, actions, and targets to most effectively bring New Jersey’s climate goals to fruition. The NWLS presents a set of statewide policies and recommendations for the management of natural and working lands, the actions necessary to implement those recommendations within a proposed timeframe, and the associated carbon sequestration benefits. The implementation of these actions will sequester carbon, build ecosystem and community resilience, and protect and enhance our economy.

September 2024 | Report Link

Use of Multispectral Drones to Assess Tidal Wetland Condition

DSR partnered with NJDEP’s Bureau of GIS, the Division of Fish and Wildlife, and Rowan University to explore the use of multispectral drones for mapping and assessing the condition of tidal wetlands. Drone footage and traditional field metrics were collected in Great Bay Boulevard Wildlife Management Area and E. B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge. The project 1) evaluated the use of multispectral drones for the delineation of high and low marsh vegetation communities; 2) investigated the use of drone-based multispectral imagery to identify conditions that can lead to high marsh pond expansion and vegetation loss by evaluating relationships between soil and porewater chemistry, vegetation, and multispectral indices; and 3) identified and describe relationships between diatom communities and soil sulfide concentrations.

February 2023 | Report Link | Factsheet

Blue Carbon Calculator for Natural Climate Solutions Grants

Natural resources that sequester carbon play a critical role in meeting the State’s 2050 goal of an 80% reduction in greenhouse gases below 2006 levels. Researchers at DSR led the development of a calculator that the Bureau of Climate Change, Clean Energy, and Sustainability uses to estimate the net carbon benefit of tidal wetland projects proposed for Natural Climate Solutions Grant funding. The first round of the Natural Climate Solutions Grant program provided $24.3 million to implement on-the-ground projects that create, restore, and enhance New Jersey’s natural carbon sinks, such as salt marshes, forests, urban parks and woodlands, and street trees. These projects can use this calculator to estimate projected carbon benefits.

January 2022 | Natural Climate Solutions Grants program

New Jersey (USA) Wetlands Past, Present and Future: Using Sediment Archives to Inform and Guide Wetland Protection, Restoration and Resilience

The Division of Science and Research partnered with researchers from the Academy of Natural Sciences of Drexel University, Rutgers University, and West Chester University on a US EPA funded project that concluded in 2018. To effectively protect New Jersey’s coastal wetlands, it’s crucial to understand their history and the factors that have shaped them since the Holocene. This project used sediment cores from four coastal areas in New Jersey to study how human activities since European settlement have impacted these wetlands. By analyzing these cores, which contain records of past conditions, the project aims to assess the wetlands’ original state, the effects of human activities, and the impacts of climate events like storms. The research also advances the use of diatoms (tiny algae) as indicators of wetland health and to set realistic restoration goals based on historical conditions. This approach helps fill in gaps due to the lack of long-term monitoring data.

January 2018 | Final Report to EPA

Beneficial Use of Dredged Material to Enhance Salt Marsh Habitat in New Jersey

From 2014 to 2017, the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection and partners initiated three beneficial use of dredged material enhancement projects within three sites: (1) Ring Island in Middle Township (Cape May County), (2) the Cape May Wetlands Wildlife Management Area in Avalon (Cape May County), and (3) the Fortescue Wildlife Management Area in Fortescue (Cumberland County). The salt marshes of the New Jersey coastline are at severe risk of drowning due to a synergistic combination of subsidence of underlying peat layers and rapidly rising sea levels resulting from global climate change. Along with the degradation of habitat, invaluable ecosystem services and functions are vulnerable to loss. Beneficial use of dredged material in this context consists of the application of benthic sediments retrieved from the New Jersey Intracoastal Waterways and State maintained navigation channels on stressed marshes to artificially increase the elevation of the marsh platform in accordance with tidal datum-based bio benchmarks. Several methods of sediment application were employed at these sites, including thin layer sediment placement in Fortescue, Ring Island, and Avalon; filling in of expanding pools and pannes in Avalon; the establishment of an elevated nesting habitat for threatened and endangered fauna in Ring Island; and the enhancement of two beaches at Fortescue. As a result of this project, we have synthesized a Monitoring Plan; a Lessons Learned document that includes the final designs, cost, and construction timeline of the project, as well as guidance for similar future efforts; and a Monitoring and Project Assessment Report that details and evaluates the extensive monitoring by NJDEP and its partners.

October 2017 | Monitoring Plan | Lessons Learned document | Monitoring and Project Assessment Report

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Environmental Trend Reports

The NJDEP maintains a series of reports that provide general information on trends and conditions for a variety of environmental factors that, together, comprise an overall assessment of our state’s environmental health. These six are connected to climate-related concerns.

• Climate Change in NJ: Trends in Temperature & Sea Level
• Greenhouse Gas Emissions
• Energy Use & Renewable Energy Sources
• PM2.5
• Ozone
• NOx and VOCs

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Climate-related Reports prepared by the NJDEP Science Advisory Board

Carbon Storage Capacity of Forest Soils in New Jersey

This review addressed charge questions related to the primary factors that could influence soil carbon storage of forest soils, how soil structure and function differ on post agriculture lands versus traditional forests of various ages, the rates and factors influencing flux between forest carbon pools, whether repeated soil compaction affect soil carbon storage, and how site preparation can affect soil carbon soil capacity.

July 2024 | Report Link

Biofuels

The report summarizes scientific literature along with consideration of existing and potential sources of biofuels in New Jersey. In particular, the following topics are discussed in detail: New Jersey’s energy economy, biomass feedstocks available, biogas production methods, estimated quantity of biogas feasible with current technology, methods capable of increasing biogas production, actions needed to introduce biogas into the existing natural gas pipeline system, identification of methods of using biofuels with existing powerplants and pipeline infrastructure, alternate uses for biofuels such as building heating, alternate uses of available biomass that could take precedence over using it to produce biogas, and assessment of the viability of biofuels to meet New Jersey’s net neutral electricity generation goal.

April 2023 | Report Link

The Status and Future of Tidal Marshes in New Jersey Faced with Sea Level Rise

This analysis addressed the status of NJ marshes vis-à-vis sea level rise in different regions of the state including Delaware Bay, Jersey Shore/Barnegat Bay, Hudson/Raritan Estuary, and the NJ Meadowlands; evaluated the breadth of evidence to characterize their status, including availability of measured sediment accretion rates for areas of NJ?; and characterized potential solutions by reviewing potential management solutions to help salt marshes respond to sea level rise and the current state of knowledge regarding various mitigation approaches. This report was expanded for a peer review publication in the Journal Anthropocene Coasts.

August 2020 | Report Link

October 2021 | Publication Abstract

Climate Change and Water Resources

This report provides a review of the available knowledge on past and future changes in climate with an emphasis on the hydrologic cycle, including predictions for precipitation and the implications for streamflow and water supply. Specifically, this includes a focus on drought, streamflow and flooding in terms of recent weather patterns (past), broad weather patterns (e.g., El Niño and La Niña), and expected climate change (future). The review addresses how streamflows will change as the climate changes, the impacts of climate change on fluvial flooding, and the impacts of climate change on areas that experience both coastal and fluvial flooding.

April 2020 | Report Link

Ongoing Research

Sea Level Rise

Evaluating Survey Methods to Accurately Relate Marsh Elevation & Inundation

DSR has partnered with the Coastal Zone Management Program to fund the development of a method to measure elevation across the New Jersey Tidal Wetland Monitoring Network that can evaluate wetland responses to inundation patterns. This project will compare elevation measurement methodologies and develop a standard operating procedure for the method(s) that best balance accuracy/precision with cost-effectiveness.

Project start date: Spring 2025 | Project duration: 2 years

Annual SET monitoring

DSR has partnered with the Coastal Zone Management Program since 2019 to provide annual funding to the New Jersey Tidal Wetland Monitoring Network. The monitoring of tidal wetland elevation, accretion rates, and vegetation is crucial to understanding the current state and future direction of wetland resilience to sea level rise (SLR). Using SETs, it is possible to determine localized differences in tidal wetland conditions that may make a particular area more susceptible to drowning due to increased SLR. Using the changes in elevation determined from SET monitoring in combination with the sediment accretion rates garnered from corresponding marker horizons or sediment grids allows for the calculation of marsh platform accretion rates, an important aspect in determining if enough sediment is being captured by the surrounding vegetation community to allow for marsh adaptation to higher inundation levels. These localized differences emphasize the need for state-wide monitoring to capture important trends across the NJ coastline that may be utilized to determine which regions are most vulnerable to SLR.

Project start date: 2019 | Project duration: Ongoing

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Mitigation and Adaptation Science

Natural and Working Lands Greenhouse Gas Inventory Enhancement

Researchers at the DSR have are partnering with the Green House Gas Management Institute to modernize and refine the State’s method of estimating carbon sequestration and emissions estimates in natural and working lands for the State’s Green House Gas Inventory.

Project Start: July 2024 | Duration: 18 months

Carbon Sequestration in Non-tidal Freshwater Wetlands

Wetland soils contain some of the highest stores of carbon on Earth, but gaps in the current state of knowledge regarding transformational pathways prevent spatially accurate carbon flux calculations. It is well known that wetland systems are the primary sinks for carbon, but wetland habitats vary in their capacity to sequester carbon, and greenhouse gas flux data is not comprehensive across the State. For New Jersey to be able to fully understand the carbon budget based on wetland habitat type, a baseline map of the carbon cycling for the State’s wetlands is needed. Although some advances have been made in the field of coastal blue carbon, there has been little research regarding carbon fluxes in non-tidal, freshwater wetlands. To begin to fill this critical data gap, DSR is partnering with Rowan University and the Partnership for the Delaware Estuary on a pilot project to determine the appropriate methods to calculate the carbon flux of New Jersey non-tidal wetlands through measurement of carbon pools and movement within wetland soils, groundwater, surface water (if present), and the atmosphere within several freshwater wetland types within the Mullica Watershed Management Area.

Project Start: Summer 2024 | Duration: 3 Years

Integrating Marsh Migration, Sediment Delivery & Retention, and Stakeholder Interests in New Jersey’s Tidal Wetlands to Inform Regulatory Programs & Adaptation

DSR is managing the research components associated with this project with collaborators from Stockton University and Monmouth University. Products derived from this study will include a report that evaluates the current state and effectiveness of marsh protection and restoration strategies and the development of a web-based tool to assess marsh resilience through accretion and/or migration. The tool will be integrated into NJ ResTOrS and NJ Adapt. Outcomes of the study will inform the “Adapting to Sea Level Rise Wetland” section of the Coastal Zone Management Program’s 2021-2025 Strategy. This wetland section of the Strategy aims to identify regulatory and/or programmatic changes that will support the resilience of tidal wetlands.

Project Start: 2023 | Duration: 3 Years

RGGI Strategic Funding Plans and Natural Climate Solutions Grants

Scientists from DSR provide technical support on the carbon sequestration in estuarine habitats (blue carbon) to the Regional Green House Gas Initiative managed by the Bureau of Climate Change, Clean Energy, and Sustainability. This includes technical contributions to the development of Strategic Funding Plans, the Natural Climate Solutions Grants program, and development of a blue carbon calculator to estimate the carbon benefit of salt marsh projects (noted above in completed projects).

Project Start: 2019 | Duration: ongoing

Monitoring and assessments with the New Jersey Tidal Wetlands Monitoring Network

In 2018, the New Jersey Tidal Wetland Monitoring Network (NJTWMN) was formed to improve the resilience of coastal communities and ecosystems by identifying current conditions and trends of tidal wetlands with the intention to better prioritize restoration efforts and inform management decisions. The focus of NJTWMN is to collect and standardize data related to the 200+ Surface Elevation Tables (SETs) positioned across the State (ongoing assessment described above). Data has been collected annually through 2024 from nearly all established SETs and associated marker horizon and vegetation plots. The NJTWMN has established standardized protocols and data sheets for measurements of SETs, marker horizon plots, vegetation plots, and tidal datums. Additionally, NJTWMN updated the Multi-tier Umbrella Mid-Atlantic Coastal Wetland Assessment quality assurance project plan. These documents will be released with the NJTWMN Web Resource described in the Tools and Resources section below.  The Network is composed of more than fifteen entities that collect long-term monitoring of tidal wetlands in New Jersey. DSR is a founding member and former chair of the NJTWMN.

Project start date: 2018 | Project duration: Ongoing

Tools and Resources

New Jersey Tidal Wetlands Monitoring Network Web Resource

DSR researchers built an interactive website and mapping tool that display information generated by the NJTWMN including data and statewide trends of coastal marsh elevation and accretion rates. The website also hosts best practice and guidance documents for how to monitor tidal wetland metrics.

Resource Link

Climate Change in New Jersey: Impacts & Effects

This key resource builds on the findings of New Jersey’s 2020 Scientific Report on Climate Change by presenting the updated materials in a streamlined digital format for all audiences. Here you can find regularly updated summaries of climate change research findings relevant to New Jersey. This resource covers a range of effects and impacts, including the drivers of climate change, temperature, precipitation, sea-level rise, ocean acidification, marine ecosystems, freshwater, land, carbon sequestration, and human health and communities.

September 2023 | Web Resource

New Jersey Extreme Precipitation Projection Tool

This site provides an interactive tool for users to identify regional and local estimates of projected changes in extreme rainfall amounts (measured in inches) within a 24-hour duration for various return periods between current estimates and a future time period under either of two future emission scenarios. Users can select their choice of rainfall return period, i.e., the 2-year, 10-year, 100-year storm, etc., the future greenhouse gas emission scenario determined by Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 or RCP 8.5, and future time period. Projections can be summarized by county, municipality, 0.1 degree grid cell, or for a custom area by drawing a polygon on the map area or uploading a GIS shapefile saved as a zip file. Projections for municipalities and custom areas are calculated based on the weighted average of projected change factors within the area that intersect 0.1 degree grid cells applied to the rainfall data from the current NOAA Atlas 14 dataset.

Resource Link

New Jersey Coastal Resilience Collaborative’s Coastal Resilience Research Library

In 2024, DSR researchers led the development of the New Jersey Coastal Resilience Collaborative’s (NJ CRC) Coastal Resilience Research Library.  This interactive webpage connects restoration practitioners and stakeholders with relevant documents, reports, peer-reviewed manuscripts, tools, maps, and other resources. This interactive library allows users to search for materials either categorically (e.g., location, habitat, biological resource, restoration goals, etc.) or by keyword.

Resource Link

New Jersey Restoration Tool Organization Suite (NJResTOrS)

A diverse coalition of state agency, non-governmental organization and academic partners has been collaborating on the development of a Coastal Ecological Restoration and Adaptation Plan (CERAP) for New Jersey’s coastal marshes, estuaries and back-bays. To support this effort, this same coalition has been building the NJ Restoration Tool Organization Suite (NJResTOrS) to provide a more seamless integration of web-based decision support tools so that users can work directly from project scoping through evaluation. The NJResTOrS workflow proceeds from the statewide perspective of the CERAP tool to a landscape scale evaluation of the marsh landscape with the Marsh Explorer and Living Shorelines Explorer tools to more detailed site level assessment and guidance provided by the Wetlands Assessment Tool for Condition & Health (WATCH) and the Living Shoreline Feasibility Model (LSFM).

NJResTOrS is one component of a larger strategy to equip coastal municipal planners and non-profit partners with the resources to plan, coordinate, and implement coastal restoration projects that support community resilience, ecosystem health, and carbon sequestration.

Components of NJResTOrS Include:

• Coastal Ecological Restoration and Adaptation Planning (CERAP) Explorer | Resource Link
• Restoration Explorer includes the Marsh & Living Shoreline Explorer Tools | Resource Link
• Wetlands Assessment Tool for Condition & Health (WATCH) | Resource Link
• The Living Shoreline Feasibility Model (LSFM) | Resource Link

New Jersey Reference Wetland Tool

Wetland condition assessment data collected across a range of watersheds and landscapes are useful for evaluating wetland function, designing restoration projects, and setting realistic goals for improvements at both existing sites and during the creation of new wetlands to offset losses or degraded function at other locations. Metrics specific to tidal wetlands were added to the database to provide ecologically relevant condition information to practitioners. Metrics and scores from extensive wetland monitoring and assessment efforts conducted within New Jersey, including the National Wetland Condition Assessment, Mid-Atlantic Coastal Wetland Assessment, Ecological Integrity Assessment, and other research were aggregated and summarized in the publicly accessible tool. The New Jersey Reference Wetland Tool displays information on physical, chemical and biological characteristics of wetlands across the state, and includes a summary statistics download feature.

Report Link | Resource Link